So much for Vice President Kamala Harris’s predicted surge in the polls.
Since she emerged as the likely Democratic nominee for president, Harris has not been able to surpass former President Trump in any of the three polls that his team had anticipated.
Rather, the contest stays in the same position as it has been for months, with Trump ahead of Harris in the most recent national head-to-head surveys.
The most recent Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted over the previous three nights and shared with Secrets, is now available. With probable voters, Trump leads Harris by 50%–43%, a difference that is much greater than chance.
Harris had only gained one point over the previous head-to-head poll between Biden and Trump, which Rasmussen conducted just before Biden withdrew from the 2024 contest due to pressure from Democratic establishment figures and the media to give up on his long-held ambition to become president, fearing a loss to Trump.
Notably, the most recent survey reveals a staggering 20-point difference in favor of Trump among independent voters, who are 53%–33%. It does indicate a slight increase in Democratic support for Harris compared to Biden.
It also demonstrates Trump’s continued strength among younger voters, as well as Hispanic and black voters. Younger voters were edging toward Harris, according to many surveys, including the recently released Emerson College Polling battleground poll.
Rasmussen’s questioning of third-party candidates did not reduce Trump’s advantage over Harris by seven points, 49%–42%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had a 50% decline in popularity, from 8% to 4%.
