Not long ago, the number of young people identifying as transgender or nonbinary seemed to be rising fast. Schools, media, and politicians pushed the idea that changing your gender was not only normal but even trendy. But now, a new study says that trend might be turning around. So what’s really going on?
A recent report by social scientist Eric Kaufmann, called “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans,” shows that fewer young people now say they are transgender or nonbinary than just a few years ago. The study looked at survey results from three different sources: the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, the Higher Education Research Institute, and Andover Phillips Academy. Across all three, the numbers told the same story—there’s been a noticeable drop in transgender and nonbinary identification.
In 2023, about 7 percent of university students said they were transgender. But by 2025, that number had fallen to just 4 percent. That’s nearly half. The number of students who said they weren’t heterosexual also dropped by about 10 percentage points.
This change is a big deal. From 2020 to 2023, the number of teens and young adults saying they were transgender skyrocketed. A 2022 study from UCLA’s Williams Institute showed that nearly one-fifth of all transgender-identifying people in the U.S. were between the ages of 13 and 17. Clearly, this movement was strongest among the youngest Americans.
Why? Many blame what some are calling a “social contagion”—a trend that spreads quickly through peer pressure, school messaging, and especially social media. Kids and teens are more likely to try out new identities when they see others doing it and getting praise for it. And for years, elite institutions, including schools, universities, and even the Biden administration before 2025, encouraged young people to explore gender identities, often without involving parents.
During that time, anyone who disagreed with the trend was often silenced. In 2021, Amazon removed a book called “When Harry Became Sally,” written by Ryan T. Anderson, which criticized the transgender movement. YouTube labeled a video of a medical doctor speaking out against gender transitions as “hate speech.” Only after President Donald Trump returned to office did Amazon allow the book back on its platform.
But something changed. The study suggests that fewer young people are now buying into the gender ideology movement. And it’s not just because of changing opinions. Some point to Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter (now called X) in late 2022 as a major turning point. Musk promoted free speech and allowed more open discussion about controversial topics, including gender identity. That shift may have helped people feel less afraid to speak out.
High-profile figures, including some liberals, began questioning the extreme parts of the transgender movement. And young people who had once identified as transgender began speaking out about their regrets. One such person, Chloe Cole, now a well-known “detransitioner,” posted on X that the “entire culture is shifting and waking up to the horrors of gender ideology.”
Conservative voices are calling this a major win. Commentator Matt Walsh called it the biggest conservative cultural victory ever. Senator Tom Cotton said he’s glad the trend is slowing but warned that real damage has already been done. He wants the people who pushed gender transitions on kids—doctors, politicians, and health officials—to be held responsible.
Still, this battle is far from over. While the number of young people identifying as transgender may be going down, many have already undergone irreversible medical treatments. Some may never be able to have children or live without health complications.
And while the cultural tide may be shifting, the policies from the Left haven’t changed much. In places like California, under Governor Gavin Newsom, transgender athletes are still allowed to compete in girls’ sports. Radical activists are also becoming more aggressive, sometimes crossing the line into violence to silence those who disagree.
So yes, the fever may be breaking. But the damage is done. And the fight to protect truth, children, and common sense isn’t over. We must keep asking questions, telling the truth, and defending the next generation from ideological experiments that have already hurt too many.