The head of Fox News’s decision desk, Arnon Mishkin, said that four days after race Day is the most likely time for the network to announce the winner of the white house race.
According to Mishkin, the race will be too close to call for a few days after the election. This is the same situation that existed in 2020.
Politico asked Mishkin what the over/under mark was for Saturday. “That’s when the last call came in.”
Mishkin works as an adviser for Fox News, not as an employee of the network. He has worked for Fox News since 2008 and in 2020 supported Fox News’s early call for Biden to win in Arizona.
Mishkin talked about his guess:
“I believe we had a good idea of how they were going to report [in 2020]. What we don’t know now, but kind of did back then, was that the types of votes would be very different. From what I can tell, Joe Biden won all but Alabama of the states where people could vote by mail. On Election Day, Trump got all but Vermont and maybe Connecticut. I don’t know the exact number, but there was a big difference. This time, I think that skew will be less. It’s not clear how much less. It will still be there, but the Republicans are doing a much better job of getting people to vote the way they want to.”
“The race looks really close. It depends on a number of states, like Pennsylvania, which we think will report in a way that is similar to how they have reported in the past. That being said, I think the over/under is Saturday. That’s when the last call came in. That’s when Pennsylvania is likely to step in. I believe we need to face the fact that we don’t know how close this election is going to be. It looks like it will be close. Based on some polls, it doesn’t look like it will be close. There will be only one outcome. Some news sources say that Trump is kind of making progress. A few studies show that he’s getting stronger. For some reason, I also think he might be falling. What happens to Trump is what I think is important. I’ve always believed that this race is more about Trump than the other candidates.”